Dwain Northey (Gen X)

This is a deeply debated hypothetical, but we can make an informed assessment based on the available facts and expert analysis.

Background: The Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA)

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was agreed in 2015 between Iran and six world powers (U.S., UK, France, Germany, Russia, China), plus the EU. It imposed strict limits on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Under the deal:

Iran reduced its stockpile of enriched uranium by 98%. It dismantled two-thirds of its centrifuges. It agreed to IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) monitoring. Its breakout time (time needed to build a bomb) was extended to about a year.

In May 2018, President Trump unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from the deal and reimposed sanctions, despite Iran being in compliance at the time (confirmed by the IAEA). In response, Iran gradually resumed and escalated its nuclear activities.

Would Iran Have Its Current Nuclear Capabilities if Trump Had Not Withdrawn?

Likely Not — and Here’s Why:

Iran Was Complying With the JCPOA Until 2019: The IAEA repeatedly confirmed that Iran adhered to the deal’s terms. Iran began violating those terms only after the U.S. exit and re-imposition of sanctions. Breakout Time Has Shrunk: Under the JCPOA: ~12 months. As of mid-2024: Estimated at a few weeks, with Iran having enriched uranium up to 60% purity, dangerously close to weapons-grade (90%). The Deal’s Inspections Would Likely Still Be in Place: The JCPOA gave the IAEA access to monitor Iran’s nuclear sites. That monitoring was curtailed after the U.S. left and tensions rose.

Counterarguments / Complicating Factors

Sunset Clauses: Critics of the JCPOA pointed out that some of its key restrictions were time-limited (e.g., centrifuge limits expiring after 10-15 years), meaning Iran could resume enrichment later — though still under IAEA safeguards. Regional Behavior: The deal didn’t address Iran’s ballistic missile program or regional activities, which opponents (including Trump) viewed as flaws. Iranian Intent: Some argue Iran always intended to develop a nuclear weapon eventually and would have done so regardless — though there’s no hard evidence to prove this definitively.

Conclusion

It is very likely that Iran would not have advanced its nuclear program to its current level if the JCPOA had remained in place.

The U.S. withdrawal in 2018 removed incentives for Iran to stay in compliance, collapsed international unity on sanctions, and led directly to Iran’s step-by-step violations.

That said, the JCPOA was never a permanent solution — but it did buy time and established strict monitoring, which has since been lost.