Dwain Northey ( Gen X)

The MAGA movement, for all its bluster about loyalty and unshakable faith in their chosen God-King, is built on the same brittle foundation as every cult of personality: fear, self-interest, and the promise of power. Loyalty lasts only as long as the checks clear, the rallies feel like Woodstock with red hats, and the illusion of invincibility remains intact. The moment the ship starts tilting, history tells us, the rats start sprinting for the lifeboats, claws bared, shoving one another into the waves.

Predictions? The unraveling is already underway. The first wave of defectors will be those who were always half in, half out—professional opportunists like certain senators and governors who rode the MAGA train for votes but never bought the hat for personal wear. They’ll start speaking in “regretful tones,” offering soft critiques while insisting they “still respect the base.” Expect this within six months of Trump’s next major public embarrassment—whether it’s a legal defeat, an electoral flop, or a health scare that proves the King bleeds like any other mortal.

The second wave will be the loyalists who suddenly remember they have “deep reservations” and were “concerned all along.” These will be the loudest hypocrites, elbowing each other for the microphone as they proclaim, with crocodile tears, that the movement betrayed them. That stage takes another year, maybe two.

Finally, the diehards will fracture. A few will remain tattooed with the man’s name until their graves, but most will splinter into mini-tribes, each crowning a new wannabe strongman. By that point, MAGA will no longer be a coherent movement—just a political shipwreck with survivors fighting over the last scraps of influence.

So, to answer plainly: the sinking has started. The kicking begins the minute the water reaches their ankles.